“Defection Fever Sweeps PDP: Why Governors Are Trooping to Tinubu’s APC Ahead of 2027”

In a dramatic twist that is reshaping Nigeria’s political chessboard, a string of governors elected under the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) are crossing over to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) — a realignment that political analysts say could redefine the road to the 2027 general elections.

While defections are not new in Nigeria’s fluid political terrain, observers note that this wave — marked by its speed, timing, and symbolism — is unprecedented.

So far, Akwa Ibom’s Umo Eno, Delta’s Sheriff Oborevwori, Bayelsa’s Douye Diri, and Enugu’s Peter Mbah have dumped the PDP for the APC, strengthening the ruling party’s grip across southern Nigeria and eroding the opposition’s influence in key strongholds.

There are even whispers that Taraba State Governor Agbu Kefas may soon follow suit — a move that would deal another heavy blow to the PDP.

Below are five major forces driving this defection storm shaking Nigeria’s political foundations.

1. Tinubu’s Power Consolidation Strategy

The gale of defections, especially from the South, is seen as part of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s quiet but calculated strategy to fortify his power base ahead of 2027.

With waning influence in parts of the North — where many of his key 2023 allies from the defunct CPC bloc have drifted to the Action Democratic Congress (ADC) — Tinubu is seeking to tighten his grip on the South, the region seen as his political bastion.

The APC’s loss of Kano to the NNPP in 2023 remains a sore point. With Rabiu Kwankwaso’s NNPP still standing firm, the ruling party is doubling down on southern dominance to offset potential northern deficits in 2027.

With Mbah’s recent defection, APC now controls three of the five South-East states, marking its strongest southern foothold in history.

> “This is more than defections; it’s a consolidation of presidential power,” said a senior political analyst in Abuja.

2. PDP’s Unending Internal Wars

The PDP’s implosion has become a fertile breeding ground for defections. Since its loss in the 2023 presidential poll, the party has been entangled in deep internal wrangling — from factional leadership disputes to unresolved court cases.

The ongoing power tussle between the G5 Governors and the national leadership has fractured the party’s unity. Many state chapters are in disarray, and the planned national convention is threatened by litigations and court injunctions.

Just last week, the PDP Forum of State Chairmen suspended the Abia and Imo chairmen for alleged anti-party activities — further evidence of a house divided against itself.

> “There’s no longer a sense of direction in the PDP,” lamented a top party insider. “Everyone is fending for themselves.”

The crisis has become so severe that some governors now worry over who will legally sign their nomination forms for the next election — a technical detail that could destroy their chances in court.

3. The Pull of Federal Power

Access to the federal purse and presidential goodwill remains one of the most compelling motivations behind the defections.

In Nigeria’s highly centralised political system, the federal government controls virtually everything — from allocations and infrastructure projects to security deployments.

For many governors, joining the ruling party guarantees survival and shields their states from being starved of funds or projects.

When Governor Peter Mbah joined APC, he described his defection as a “development decision,” not a political one — signalling that access to federal cooperation was a priority.

> “Governors don’t want to be in opposition when projects and funding are shared. It’s political survival,” said Dr. Chika Ibe, a policy expert at the University of Abuja.

4. Fear, Pressure, and the Corruption Sword

Behind the scenes, fear and coercion are quietly driving the defections. Multiple reports suggest that some opposition governors are being pressured by federal agencies and fear possible investigations into their finances or businesses.

Many have significant investments in Lagos and Abuja, and sources say they are unwilling to risk losing them.

> “Some are calculating and want to avoid prosecution after office. Joining APC seems the safest move,” said Prof. Hassan Saliu, President of the Nigerian Political Science Association (NPSA).

The PDP leadership recently condemned what it described as the APC’s “desperate intimidation tactics”, warning that Nigeria risks sliding into a one-party state.

But for the defectors, self-preservation trumps ideology.

5. Strategic Positioning for 2027 and Beyond

Ultimately, the defection wave is a pre-2027 survival strategy. Many of the defecting governors are hedging their bets — securing protection, influence, and relevance as political uncertainty deepens.

> “They don’t trust the electoral system. They are positioning themselves for security — political and economic — before leaving office,” said Dr. Sam Amadi, Director of the Abuja School of Social and Political Thoughts.

The sentiment among governors is simple: stay close to power or risk being consumed by it.

> “If a sitting governor can be removed without consequence, what’s the guarantee for others?” Amadi asked rhetorically.

As 2027 draws nearer, the PDP faces an existential crisis, and the APC — armed with the full weight of federal might — is tightening its grip on Nigeria’s political machinery.

Whether these defections represent strategy, survival, or submission, one thing is certain: the political tides are turning fast, and the opposition may be running out of time.