Nigeria’s crude oil production has seen a notable increase, reaching 1.737 million barrels per day in January 2025, according to data from the Nigeria Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC). This marks a steady recovery in output and a significant improvement from 1.667 million barrels per day recorded in December 2024.
The latest figures show a consistent upward trajectory in production, following 1.690 million barrels per day in November 2024 and 1.538 million barrels per day in October 2024. The lowest production level in recent years was recorded in April 2024, when Nigeria’s output dropped to 1.447 million barrels per day, largely due to rampant oil theft, pipeline vandalism, and operational inefficiencies.
However, government interventions—such as enhanced security around oil infrastructure, stricter enforcement against illegal bunkering, and pipeline surveillance contracts—have contributed to the gradual recovery.
Despite the progress, Nigeria’s crude oil output remains below both its installed production capacity and government projections. The federal government previously claimed that production had hit 1.8 million barrels per day in November 2024 and ambitiously targeted 2.5 million barrels per day by December 2024—a goal that remains unachieved.
The last time Nigeria’s crude oil production exceeded the current figures was in March 2021, when output reached 1.748 million barrels per day. Since then, the industry has struggled with setbacks ranging from militant attacks on pipelines, infrastructural decay, foreign investment decline, and policy instability.
With oil revenues forming the backbone of Nigeria’s economy, any production shortfall has direct implications for fiscal stability, foreign exchange earnings, and national development. Industry experts caution that while the latest boost in output is commendable, sustaining and exceeding current levels requires decisive government action.
Key stakeholders are urging:
Stronger security measures to prevent crude oil theft and pipeline sabotage.
Transparent and investor-friendly policies to attract foreign direct investment.
Urgent infrastructural upgrades in refineries and oil facilities.
Improved governance in the petroleum sector to reduce inefficiencies and mismanagement.
While the recent surge in production signals a step in the right direction, experts argue that without bold reforms, Nigeria risks remaining a struggling oil giant—rich in resources but underperforming in output. To reclaim its position as a top oil producer in Africa, the government must match ambition with action, ensuring that growth in crude oil production is sustained, optimized, and beneficial to the economy.
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