The political landscape ahead of the 2027 presidential election is shifting, with former Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), Babachir Lawal, sounding a dire warning to President Bola Tinubu. Lawal, once a close ally but now a fierce critic, insists that unless Tinubu retraces his steps and assuages the growing discontent in the North, his chances of re-election may be doomed.
In a statement that has sparked fresh political debates, Lawal declared that the North would never forgive Tinubu for the economic hardship and policy decisions that have plunged the region into distress. His remarks come amid a rising anti-Tinubu sentiment in the North, with key figures like Bauchi State Governor Bala Mohammed, the Arewa Consultative Forum, and several northern chieftains voicing their displeasure.
Tensions escalated further following a controversial warning by the National Chairman of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Abdullahi Ganduje, who urged northern politicians to abandon any presidential ambition in 2027. This statement, seen by many as a strategic move to consolidate Tinubu’s grip on power, has only fueled the North’s resentment.
In an exclusive interview, Lawal did not mince words, painting a grim picture of the President’s dwindling support in the region.
“Let him run a good programme that will remove the poverty in the land. It’s not about him but his bad policies. They are throwing every Nigerian, particularly the North, into distress. Let him make good policies. Let him listen,” Lawal said.
He accused the Tinubu administration of silencing critics rather than addressing their grievances.
“Unfortunately, when they give them a piece of advice, they will release their attack dogs and even his information managers to go after you. The right to even dissent is now a crime in northern Nigeria. He’s locking up all our boys who are publicly complaining about his policies. So, all these things also add to the tension in the North.”
The ‘Goodluck Jonathan Treatment’ Looming Over Tinubu
When asked about growing speculations that the North might replicate the 2015 strategy used against former President Goodluck Jonathan, Lawal grinned knowingly.
The former SGF explained that once the North takes a firm stance on a major election, financial inducements and political maneuvering cannot sway its electorate. He referenced Jonathan’s fate in 2015, when despite heavy financial spending, voters collected the money but refused to turn up at the polls to support him.
“As for the Goodluck Jonathan treatment, it is possible because they (Tinubu’s camp) have a lot of money and possibly think they can use it to buy the votes and win the elections. Goodluck tried it by spending a lot of money, people collected the money and promised him they would deliver the votes. But they stayed at home and still didn’t vote,” Lawal noted.
He warned that Tinubu faces a similar fate in 2027 if he fails to change course.
“That was why you noticed that not many people came out and publicly campaigned for Goodluck Jonathan. So, we are also at that point. 2027 is going to be very interesting.”
Tinubu at a Crossroads
With the 2027 elections drawing closer, Tinubu’s political survival hangs in the balance. The North, a crucial voting bloc, appears increasingly alienated by his administration’s policies. Unless swift corrective measures are taken to alleviate the hardship and rebuild trust, the President could face an insurmountable political revolt similar to what led to Jonathan’s defeat in 2015.
Will Tinubu heed the warning and course-correct, or will he ignore the signs and risk being ousted by the very region that played a decisive role in his ascension to power? The next few months will be telling.
PIONEER NEWS 