Renowned security analyst and counter-insurgency expert Zagazola recently illuminated the escalating conflict in northern Mali on his social media channel, X. His insights reveal a region engulfed in turmoil, with government forces, separatist groups, and jihadist factions locked in fierce battles. The Malian Armed Forces (FAM), bolstered by the Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner, are pitted against Azawad separatists and extremist groups such as Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) and the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS).
Situation Summary
Control and Areas of Operation
Government Forces: Maintain control over the southern and central regions of Mali.
Northern Regions: Dominated by Azawad separatists, with significant activity from JNIM and ISGS, particularly near the Algerian border.
Conflict Timeline
July 20: FAM and PMC Wagner conducted a raid on In-Afarak, advancing towards Tinzaouaten.
July 23: The convoy reached Boughessa unopposed but called for reinforcements due to Azawad mobilization.
July 25: Intense clashes erupted near Tinzaouaten, with FAM and Wagner facing resistance exacerbated by a sandstorm.
July 26: Fighting continued, featuring aircraft and FPV drones used by FAM and Wagner. An Mi-24 helicopter sustained damage from separatists.
July 27: Retreating towards Abeibara and Kidal, FAM and PMC Wagner encountered ambushes from JNIM and Azawad forces.
Casualties and Losses
FAM and PMC Wagner faced severe losses, with casualties estimated between several dozen to 80 personnel. Equipment losses included six to seven vehicles, either destroyed or captured. Notably, Wagner PMC’s unit commander Sergei Shevchenko (call sign “Prud”) was among the confirmed fatalities.
Tactics and Strategy
JNIM and Azawad separatists utilized effective guerrilla tactics, including improvised explosive devices (IEDs) and ambushes. The coordination between jihadist and separatist forces has complicated the operational environment for FAM and Wagner.
Strategic Implications
The recent clashes in northern Mali underscore the region’s volatile and fragmented control. The collaboration between jihadist groups and separatist factions presents a significant threat to stability and security. The involvement of external actors like PMC Wagner adds a complex layer to the conflict, potentially influencing regional dynamics.
Follow @DefenceInfoNG and @ecowas_cedeao for more updates on this developing situation.
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