In a striking revelation, a recent Afrobarometer survey across 39 African countries has found that a significant portion of the population would consider supporting a military coup if their elected leaders were abusing power. The survey highlights a complex and nuanced perspective on governance and democracy in Africa.
According to the findings, more than half of the respondents (53%) indicated a willingness to accept a military takeover under circumstances where elected leaders exploit their positions for personal gain. However, a notable two-thirds of those surveyed also emphasized that military intervention should not be the primary means of governance.
The survey results come at a time when confidence in democratic processes is faltering across the continent. This growing skepticism is mirrored in various recent events, including military coups in West Africa, youth-led protests in Kenya, and former South African President Jacob Zuma’s unsubstantiated claims of electoral fraud. In Nigeria, youths and civil society groups are gearing up for a nationwide protest under the bannerEndBadGovernanceInNigeria, set for August, aiming to highlight issues of hardship and misgovernance. Similarly, Uganda is experiencing unrest as the government cracks down on opposition figures amid planned protests against corruption.
The report detailed, “More than half of Africans (53% across 39 countries) are willing to accept a military takeover if elected leaders ‘abuse power for their own ends.’”
Despite these findings, support for democratic principles remains strong among Africans. On average, two-thirds (66%) of respondents still prefer democracy over any other form of government. Large majorities also continue to reject one-man rule (80%), one-party rule (78%), and military rule (66%). Nonetheless, over the past decade, support for democracy has waned, dropping by 7 percentage points across 30 countries, with South Africa and Mali experiencing the most significant declines of 29 and 23 points, respectively.
Opposition to military rule has similarly weakened, decreasing by 11 points across 30 countries, with Mali and Burkina Faso showing the most dramatic shifts of 40 and 36 points, respectively. Despite these trends, the demand for government accountability and the rule of law has grown, and support for other democratic norms, such as presidential accountability to Parliament, multiparty competition, presidential term limits, and media freedom, has remained stable.
However, confidence in elections as the best method for choosing leaders has diminished by 8 percentage points over the past decade. Despite this decline, a large majority still view elections as the preferable means of leader selection. The survey also revealed that less than half (45%) of Africans believe their countries are fully or mostly democratic, and only 37% express satisfaction with the functioning of democracy in their nations.
Some of Africa’s most prominent democracies have seen significant declines in satisfaction with democratic governance. Botswana and Mauritius experienced a 40-point drop in satisfaction, while South Africa saw a 35-point decrease.
The survey’s findings paint a complex picture of the current state of democracy in Africa, highlighting both the enduring support for democratic principles and the growing frustration with the implementation and effectiveness of democratic governance.
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